Category: Immigration Trends and Data

Criminal Deportations, Buffer Zones and More – Our Three-Month Border Update

Apr 18th, 2025
Only three months in, Donald Trump’s second Administration has reigned in lawlessness on the southern border, revamping the broken immigration system, stemming the flow of illegal crossings, and deporting criminal aliens. He has accomplished this despite resistance from many states and localities to helping enforce the law, a barrage of criticism from the media, and an activist judiciary seeking to block the agenda on which he was elected. Immigration statistics have seen drastic changes since Joe Biden left office.

ICE arrests per month have surged 627 percent since the change of administrations, helping to discourage illegal crossings.¹ ICE’s ramped up efforts have resulted in the arrest of about 113,000 and deportation of about 100,000 illegal aliens, mostly with criminal records, as reports the administration.² FAIR (Federation for American Immigration Reform) estimates that just these deportations alone will save taxpayers around half a billion dollars annually. ³

FAIR estimates that there remain an estimated 18.6 million illegal aliens residing in the United States⁴, but the deportation process, the government says, is only getting off the ground. The House of Representatives last month boosted funding for ICE in its reconciliation bill, in its allocation of $200 million to homeland security⁵. In the last week, the administration established buffer zones at a vulnerable area along the border dubbed the Roosevelt Reservation, encompassing land in California, Arizona and New Mexico, sending military equipment and troops to patrol these areas.⁶ Troops are authorized to make arrests of illegal crossers.

Trump has been gradually racking up victories in the court battles over his efforts to stem the flow of illegal migrants. Recently, for example, he sat down with President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador where he discussed, among other topics, the deportation of Kilmar Abrego-Garcia, a convicted member of MS-13, a Salvadorian gang, which Trump’s opponents have been trying to reverse. The Supreme Court had ruled this deportation lawful, as well as his use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport criminal aliens including Abrego-Garcia, but has since paused such deportations.

There remains a staggering amount of work ahead, involving dealing with uncooperative local governments, fighting court battles, and even possible military action on the cartels, for the administration to fulfill its ultimate goals on border security and immigration. In the meantime, however, let’s look at some of the most noteworthy statistics thus far regarding the immigration situation.

The chart below depicts monthly crossings since the start of fiscal year 2024. As seen in this chart, by February 2025, the first full month of Trump’s second presidency, illegal crossings were reduced to 29,000, from over 125,000 in December, Biden’s last full month. The February 2025 count, which was duplicated in March, amounts to less than 10 percent of Biden’s all-time high count (331,000 in December of fiscal year 2024).

A graphic showing the number of encounters per month for the last one and a half years; both nationwide and on the southwest (southern) border, which encompass most (but not all) crossers; Note the decline in FY January 2025 and again in February, Donald Trump’s first full month in the White House. (Source: USCBP)⁷

Рrior to Trump’s election in November, the number of migrant crossings per month sat at about 150,000, more than halved from previous highs at the end of fiscal year 2023, but still very costly to the nation. Very steep costs from illegal immigration had been imposed on the nation throughout the years of the Biden administration, which also illegally provided many illegal aliens with social security numbers, according to recent reports. Over 2 million, we know now, were given a social security number in 2024 alone.

As seen in the chart above, illegal immigration peaked around the end of 2023 and then gradually declined through the remaining months of the Biden administration. At this time, the Biden administration reinstated some of Trump’s рrevious policies to reduce the volume of crossings. Critics of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris claimed the administration instituted action to mitigate the crisis in part to mollify voters. However, this action was too little and too late, and Americans saw the border crisis as a key issue (40% per Rasmussen) and a motivating factor to vote for Trump.

Another important statistic relates to the the changing family status of the border crosses that has accompanied the change in border policy between the Biden and Trump administrations. This is quite visible in the chart below, which shows breakdown of migrant crossings by family status by month since the beginning of fiscal year 2024 (October 2023).

A chart showing the distribution of family status of the migrants who crossed the US Southern Border; note the drop in family units (and minors) in February, Trump’s first month in office. (Source; USCBP)⁸

In March, migrant families comprised about 5 percent of all southern border encounters, following a 20 percentage point drop from January to February. In contrast, the family share ranged between 30 and 40 percent during the last 15 months of the Biden administration. Some have argued that it was a goal of Biden to have illegal immigrants bring their families, hoping to eventually expand the population of voters indebted to and voting for Democrats. This aspect aside, migration of family units clearly impose higher costs on taxpayers.

In sum, the data show that Trump administration has largely brought the migrant crisis under control, with what his supporters argue are sensible border policies completely in contrast to those of his predecessor. Trump, to reiterate, has much work in front of him in order to increase deportations and achieve his ultimate goals on homeland security. But even the 100,000 deportations of criminal aliens to date means less fentanyl trafficked into the country to kill Americans, fewer children being sex trafficked, and safer streets for the American people.
1. See U.S. Department of Homeland Security, “Under President Trump ICE Arrests Have Increased by 627%.” February 26, 2025. ↩︎
2. See Jennie Taer and Anna Young, “Trump administration has arrested 113K migrants, deported over 100K since taking office.” New York Post, March 31, 2025. ↩︎
3. According to FAIR, this is a low-end savings estimate, since most of the raids and deportation operations have occurred in large urban areas, where costs tied to illegal immigration are higher than average. ↩︎
4. See FAIR, “How Significant is 100,000 Deportations?” April 8, 2025. ↩︎
5. See Joe Chatham, “Congress Passes Budget Resolution, Funding for Immigration Enforcement Inches Forward“, FAIR, April 7, 2025. ↩︎
6. See Erin Leone, “Trump Administration Authorizes Control of Federal Land along the U.S. – Mexico Border“, FAIR, April 21, 2025. ↩︎
7. Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Stats and Summaries. ↩︎
8. Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Stats and Summaries. ↩︎
A Statistical Analysis on the Migrant Crisis: An Unrivaled Politics Special Report

Mar 31st, 2024

The Broken Border Quantified

Americans now view immigration as a key issue in the 2024 election, as the current administration’s policies have allowed so many persons to cross the border unvetted. Many American citizens are concerned that this places them at risk personally or adversely affects them financially.

One might have read or seen plenty of news stories about the huge influx of migrants into our country during the past few years, associated with human trafficking and an increase in the flow of dangerous substances like fentanyl. There have also been many stories about violent crimes committed by illegal border crossers.

What one may not have seen is a quantitative presentation of the facts–the official data analyzed and put into historical perspective in a concise and unified way. The goal of this report is to provide just that–a basic, quantitative analysis characterizing the crisis. Unless otherwise noted, the source of these data is the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

The chart below shows total Customs and Border Patrol encounters by fiscal year for 2014 through 2024, both for the Southwest border and nationwide, where an encounter can be either of an individual or a family unit. (For 2024 the chart shows an extrapolated annual count obtained by doubling the October 2023 through March 2024 total.) In addition, the chart depicts the total of encounters plus gotaways, where annual counts of the latter through fiscal year 2023 are based on official data obtained and reported by Fox News. Whereas encounters encompass border crossers who are apprehended, gotaways refer to those spotted by agents or by video surveillance but not apprehended.

A chart showing encounters and gotaways by year since 2014, showing total encounters both at the border and nationwide, plus estimated gotaways. *2024 is an annualized count.

The most striking takeaway from this chart is the huge acceleration in migrant encounters and gotaways after 2020, accompanying the switch to the Biden administration. By 2022, the annual volume of Southwest border encounters had almost quintupled relative to 2020, from about half-a-million family units or individuals to nearly two and a half million. Annual volume continued to rise after 2022, though less steeply.

In contrast, across the transition from Obama to Trump, little difference is seen. The annual rate of border encounters dropped slightly between the last three years of Obama into the first two years of Trump due to enforcement.

A spike occurred during 2019 when, at least in part due to a worsening gang violence and crime situation in Central America, caravans of migrants seeking asylum in the United States surged the border. This was quickly curbed by the Trump administration, as seen in the monthly data on volume of encounters during 2018 and 2019, shown below.

A chart showing the spike in border encounters in fiscal year 2019, managed by the administration through pressure on the Mexican government.

The chart indicates that the spike occurred between February and July of 2019 and that by September the volume of border crossers had returned to its 2018 level.

This was accomplished primarily through pressure (threat of tariffs) on the Mexican government to apply a 2018 agreement (so-called “remain in Mexico”) on treatment of asylum seekers. According to these protocols, non-Mexican migrants traversing Mexico seeking asylum in the U.S. were to be kept from crossing into the U.S. while their asylum cases were still pending.

In the final three months of the Trump administration, total encounters at the Southwest border hovered at record lows of slightly above 70,000 each month. After Joe Biden assumed the presidency, the number quickly soared, reaching over 200,000 as of July 2021.

In December 2023, over 300,000 individuals or family units were caught trying to cross the border, a historical record. As of March 2024, total encounters under the current administration had neared 10 million, as well as ~1.6 million gotaways who are presently in an unknown location.

Demographic Composition of SW Border Encounters

A graph indicating the distribution of family status by individual adults (dark red), family units (yellow), and unaccompanied minors (lighter red). Although the percentage of unaccompanied minors is declining, the actual number has increased dramatically since before 2021.

The chart above summarizes how the demographic composition of encountered individuals and families has evolved over the years. Specifically, the chart shows the distribution across three migrant categories: family units, single adults, and unaccompanied minors.

The proportion of unaccompanied minors has steadily declined from 13 percent in 2014 to 5 percent as of 2024; however, the overall migrant surge under the current administration brought a staggering increase in the sheer number of unaccompanied minors crossing the border. For instance, in 2022 there were around 150,000 unaccompanied minor encounters, more than two and a half times the average annual count during 2014 through 2020. This is extremely concerning, for obvious reasons.

The mix of single adults versus family units has fluctuated through the years. Except during the 2019 spike, a majority of SW border encounters have been single adults. In 2023 and 2024, family units have comprised more than 35 percent of encounters, a larger share than in any prior year other than 2019.

Post-Encounter Outcomes: Expulsion, Release, or Transfer to ICE

The surging number of CBP encounters only half describes the border situation. The other half would be the fate of these apprehended migrants. Under the Biden administration, deportations and expulsions dropped sharply while releases into the U.S. soared.

Distributions, by family status, of Southwest border encounters across three outcome categories–expulsion or repatriation; transfer to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (for further evaluation and processing); and release into the U.S. (a parole or a release on their own recognizance)–are shown below.

A chart showing migrant CBP bookout status by year for single adults. Note the sharp drop in expulsions and increase in releases under the Biden administration.

This chart shows CBP bookout status by year for family units. Notice the change in proportions of those transferred to ICE after 2020.

Through fiscal year 2020, most single adults apprehended by CBP were expelled or deported, and nearly all of the rest were transferred to ICE custody for further processing. Very few were paroled or otherwise directly released into the U.S. In this regard, there wasn’t much difference in treatment of migrants between the Obama and Trump administrations.

After 2020, that situation changed dramatically. From 2022 on, more than half of individual adult detainees were released by CBP, while only about 10 to 20 percent have been expelled or deported.

In regard to family units, prior to 2021 a much larger proportion were transferred to ICE facilities and relatively few family units were simply expelled or deported compared to individual adults. During the migrant spike in fiscal year 2019, about half of family units were released, but the share reverted to close to zero when the surge eased in 2020. Again, with the exception of 2019, there wasn’t much difference between the Obama and Trump administrations.

Under the Biden administration, 80 percent or more of family units have been released. This lenient policy may have encouraged more migration by family units, which may explain the increase since 2022 in the share of migrants arriving in claimed family groups (which aren’t necessarily always actual families.)

These facts indicate that the Biden administration has not curbed illegal immigration in any serious manner, but instead has sought to integrate as many of these migrants as possible into American society. In doing so, the administration has seemingly ignored the potential costs to American citizens. These include both the direct costs of absorbing the migrants, indirect costs such as upward pressure on rents and house prices and downward pressure on wages for lower-income American households, and crime tied to inadequate vetting of migrants.

The Countries-of-Origin of the Migrants

Another dramatic change occurring after Biden took office has been the much wider range of nationalities of individuals and families arriving at the border. The chart below shows trend in number of encounters at the Southwest border by region of origin of the individual or family unit.

A graph showing the number of border encounters by region over the last ten years: Mexico and Central America have been historically the main source; migration from Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela and other countries worldwide has grown rapidly since 2021. *2024 is an annualized count.

Until 2021, nearly all encounters at the Southwest border were of migrants from Mexico and Central America. Under the current administration, there has been a dramatic rise in migrants from other countries throughout Latin American, the Caribbean, and from other parts of the world as well, as seen prominently in the chart.

Especially since 2022, the migrants coming to the Southwest border have comprised a mix of many different nationalities. There have been thousands of encounters of migrants from countries as wide ranging as China, India, Mauritania, Nepal, Senegal, and Turkey. For example, in 2023 there were about 24,000 encounters of migrants from China, about double the entire 2014 through 2022 count.

The Biden Administration’s Encouragement of the Border Surge

Is it mere coincidence, or as sometimes claimed a consequence of Trump administration policies, that migrant crossings surged as soon as the Biden administration took office? Such an assessment lacks credibility.

Multiple actions and words of President Biden, even from the time he was a candidate and during the early weeks of his administration can be pointed to as helping to promote the surge. When then-candidate Biden was asked about his immigration policy, he said he would “surge to the border” those seeking asylum. As a campaign promise, he vowed to stop building the border wall. Upon his taking office, an entire series of repeal and loosening of border policies and enforcement ensued.

Immediately upon assuming the presidency, for example, President Biden abandoned President Trump’s “remain in Mexico” program and repealed Trump’s near-total ban on entry from specific high-risk countries such as Iraq and Syria. The Biden administration then drastically loosened the Trump-era standards of who is subject to deportation or arrest. The requirements for immigrant green cards or visas, temporary protected status, and government benefits were also loosened. The practice of “catch and release”, whereby large numbers of detained aliens were unconditionally released to await an administrative hearing was normalized. (For additional details, see here, here, and here.)

Undoubtedly, the Biden administration’s lax enforcement at the border has operated as a kind of feedback loop. Lax border policy encourages successively more migration, which in turn further overwhelms existing enforcement resources, which encourages yet more migration.

One consequence of this laxity is that numerous individuals from terror hotbeds in the Middle East have been apprehended at the border and even within the interior. These include 160 persons on the terror watchlist who were apprehended along the border in 2023, up from 100 in 2022. There is also credible circumstantial evidence that Venezuela’s government has taken advantage of the situation by releasing prisoners en masse and encouraging them to head to the U.S.

Perhaps the current administration has been motivated by a short-sighted, knee-jerk compassion for poor citizens of other countries. Perhaps, it has been driven by political considerations. Either way, there can be little doubt that the administration’s open border policies have compromised the sovereignty and safety of the American people.